Betting Thread

[chrishlcfc]

Fuk u Sheff u 

 

Ditto.

[The Blur]

Fleetwood also let me down. Really surprised.

 

At least my Conference treble came in. Thank you Halifax,Macclesfield and Kidderminster. Profit for the weekend

[foxfanazer]

Nuneaton have just scored to make it 1-2 if that helps your bet? Not quite sure what you mean by Both teams to score and a result?

Scunthorpe and Fleetwood have let me down.

I had both teams to score and

Gateshead to win (3-2)

Kidderminster to win (3-1)

Welling to win (1-2) if that'd been Welling I'd be £208 better off. Devastated

[chrishlcfc]

Fair play- they are winning 3-1. Great bit of research.

 

Yes absolutely unbelievable price, just a shame Sheff Utd let me down 3 out of 4. 

[The Blur]

Yes absolutely unbelievable price, just a shame Sheff Utd let me down 3 out of 4. 

 

 

Bit ironic as I was debating Fletwood or Oxford as third team in a treble as there were a popular consensus that Oxford would win but I went with my guts and lost. On the flip side, I thought Sheff Utd and Scunthorpe were not worth it.

[Matt]

I had both teams to score and

Gateshead to win (3-2)

Kidderminster to win (3-1)

Welling to win (1-2) if that'd been Welling I'd be £208 better off. Devastated

 

Ah right, unlucky!

 

I didn't know whether you had BTTS and a win either way maybe - Not even sure if you can do that kind of bet.

[whoareyaaa]

I've been thinking for a while about picking a team that is on a losing streak of 3/4 games and then for example back then every game from then in until they win but to guarentee a profit the first game you put say a £10 bet on them, then if it loses put £20 on them and then £30 until they win. surely it would eventually return a decent profit?

 

or you could double up each time so £10 then £20 then £40 then £80

Edited 16 November 2013 by whoareyaaa

[foxfanazer]

Ah right, unlucky!

I didn't know whether you had BTTS and a win either way maybe - Not even sure if you can do that kind of bet.

No I wish!

Bet u can somewhere

[Ashley]

Made up for Maybes with his lump job on Wolves. Well done mate

[foxfanazer]

I've been thinking for a while about picking a team that is on a losing streak of 3/4 games and then for example back then every game from then in until they win but to guarentee a profit the first game you put say a £10 bet on them, then if it loses put £20 on them and then £30 until they win. surely it would eventually return a decent profit?

or you could double up each time so £10 then £20 then £40 then £80

seems like you could lose quite a bit of money

[Dan LCFC]

I've been thinking for a while about picking a team that is on a losing streak of 3/4 games and then for example back then every game from then in until they win but to guarentee a profit the first game you put say a £10 bet on them, then if it loses put £20 on them and then £30 until they win. surely it would eventually return a decent profit?

 

or you could double up each time so £10 then £20 then £40 then £80

 

I'd be stunned if that made a profit. Absolutely stunned.

[ScouseFox]

I'm pretty sure it is a genuine gambling tactic and it might even be against rules in casinos and the like, it's got a name but it escapes me. Continually backing a 2nd fav on horses, doubling your stake as you go is the same tactic. Well let's look at the maths of it. All odds approximate but kinda rough guesses. Give or take a little bit but the theory is there. 

 

Say your "out of form" team are towards the bottom of a league. Home odds would tend to be about 6/4 - 5/2 for the most part, away odds 4/1 - 5/1 at a guess, opposition dependant of course. 

 

So you stake £10 and it loses. -£10

You stake £20 and it loses. -£30

You stake £40 and it loses. -£70

You stake £80 and it loses. -£150 

etc etc. 

 

Say it wins next time out, you've staked £160 (temp. -£310) but you'd expect odds between 2/1 and 5/1 or so, so you'd be winning £480 - £960. Basically as long as, when it eventually wins (if it does) the odds are above evens you'll be in profit. (£160 @ evs would return £320 and you've staked a total of £310 over the weeks). Just depends if you've got the bottle, the time, the money to almost inevitably lose to begin with etc for what could potentially be a pretty small profit (£10 profit from £310 outlay, hardly worth it). 

 

That might all be bullshit but that's what I know and can contribute to this discussion haha. 

[Tom17LCFC]

Yeah I think the profit derives from the original stake i.e start with a tenner and you'll end up a tenner profit. It's the same with roulette. Keep continuously selecting red and double your stake each time until it comes in and you'll be in profit by the amount you originally staked.

[whoareyaaa]

I'm pretty sure it is a genuine gambling tactic and it might even be against rules in casinos and the like, it's got a name but it escapes me. Continually backing a 2nd fav on horses, doubling your stake as you go is the same tactic. Well let's look at the maths of it. All odds approximate but kinda rough guesses. Give or take a little bit but the theory is there. 

 

Say your "out of form" team are towards the bottom of a league. Home odds would tend to be about 6/4 - 5/2 for the most part, away odds 4/1 - 5/1 at a guess, opposition dependant of course. 

 

So you stake £10 and it loses. -£10

You stake £20 and it loses. -£30

You stake £40 and it loses. -£70

You stake £80 and it loses. -£150 

etc etc. 

 

Say it wins next time out, you've staked £160 (temp. -£310) but you'd expect odds between 2/1 and 5/1 or so, so you'd be winning £480 - £960. Basically as long as, when it eventually wins (if it does) the odds are above evens you'll be in profit. (£160 @ evs would return £320 and you've staked a total of £310 over the weeks). Just depends if you've got the bottle, the time, the money to almost inevitably lose to begin with etc for what could potentially be a pretty small profit (£10 profit from £310 outlay, hardly worth it). 

 

That might all be bullshit but that's what I know and can contribute to this discussion haha. 

 

That's pretty much summed it up if you was to bet those stakes then you need a decent bankroll, you could just back them away only which would increase the bet length but maybe return more of a profit, for example if you was had Accrington Stanley today which was @ 4's £160 would have returned £640 plus you're stake? £160 total £800 - £320 profit = £480 <- that might be wrong.

 

maybe not worth the bother.

Edited 16 November 2013 by whoareyaaa

[separator]

Yeah I think the profit derives from the original stake i.e start with a tenner and you'll end up a tenner profit. It's the same with roulette. Keep continuously selecting red and double your stake each time until it comes in and you'll be in profit by the amount you originally staked.

I've tried using the Martingale betting system, doubling up every time until you win, on roulette. Works often but you can easily lose the lot if you get a run of reds (and your doubling up on black)

[Dan LCFC]

I can see your point here Scouse, I just think it's one of those which will eventually win but you're gambling a lot to do it in the process - it's like sticking £500 on England to beat San Marino.

[ScouseFox]

I can see your point here Scouse, I just think it's one of those which will eventually win but you're gambling a lot to do it in the process - it's like sticking £500 on England to beat San Marino.

 

Yeah I'd personally never do it (unless I came into a lot more disposable money than I have atm ). Unless I did it starting at like 50p or a quid but then after a few weeks I'd end up with profit of about a fiver haha. 

 

I'm also sure there's a downside to it but I can't work it out yet. I guess it's just the amount you have to stake to get any meaningful profit that would put your average punter off. 

[Dan LCFC]

I think the downside of the risk not coming off. It's not completely unfeasible that you could not win for 10 weeks running.

 

£10, £20, £40, £80, £160, £320, £640, £1280, £2560, £5020.

 

10 weeks without a win sees you spend not too shy of ten thousand.

[Facecloth]

I think the downside of the risk not coming off. It's not completely unfeasible that you could not win for 10 weeks running.

£10, £20, £40, £80, £160, £320, £640, £1280, £2560, £5020.

10 weeks without a win sees you spend not too shy of ten thousand.

Going ten weeks wouldn't be totally out the question, depends who you pick. Didn't Sunderland go about 10 games without winning?

All that to win a tenner!

[Donut]

Its Martingale betting.

 

It would work in THEORY, if you had an unlimited bank, and there were no casino table limits. However, there are casino table limits, so whilst you could be winning a large proportion of the time, eventually you would be bound to lose everything you had won, because the table limit would ensure youd wipe out everything youd won.

 

In sports....

 

You could do this, but youd need a huge bank. And then the numbers become completely ridiculous, because youll only be winning the original stake as discussed above.

 

No one with any sense will be betting £5000 to win a tenner

 

 

So its a bit of a flawed concept

[Turtles Head]

Fleetwood cost me a treble to win £900.

Had a big bet on Woking when they were 1-0 down at 4/1. Bricking it when they conceded again 2 minutes later. Won 3-2

[Leicester Bean]

I was thinking of doing that method for a bet like first goalscorer. Double stake until it comes in and odds will be around 6/1 for a striker usually.

[Matt]

Another awful day at the Cheltenham Open meeting for me.

 

Like I always say I seem to go through a couple of weeks where I have some great, big wins, then I go though a long spell where I win fuck all, seems like this trend is going to continue, looks like a start of non-winning spell.

 

In other news, congratulations to the 17 time G1 winner Hurricane Fly, excellent achivement, however at odds of 1/16 I couldn't touch it, no matter how good a horse is where is the value in that? Besides it wasn't as easy victory as expected at 1/16 if I had money on it, i'd have been sweating.

Edited 17 November 2013 by Matt

[Soar Fox]

£5 on Mad Moose

[Tom17LCFC]

haha absolutely love the moose.